Big Data

Big Data & Creativity – The Uber Case Study

Are we seeing the beginning of the rise of the machines? I recently went to a talk on big data that looked at Uber as a case study example of applying big data to business and this was the first thought that sprang to mind. Essentially Uber is valued so highly not because it provides cool taxis but because it is a big data company that applies big data to automate and optimise the Taxi business. We as agencies can learn alot from Uber in terms of being creative with data, however caution must be taken to avoid big data blindness and ensure proper human analysis is applied to it.

As a core insight, the guys at Uber worked out that the number one predictor of satisfaction with taxi companies wasn’t necessarily how long it actually takes the car to arrive but how long it takes perceptually based on the customers situation. For example you may expect a car to take 5 minutes to get to you in the middle of the day in the city, however 15 minutes if you were out in the suburbs – you adjust your expectations based on your situation. With this in mind they were then able to be creative with data in terms of optimising supply and demand for this key metric with factors such as the car type and quantity, the drivers, weather, traffic lights or sense of time varying depending on location (city vs country). They don’t neccessarily send the geographically closest car but the car that can get their the fastest perceptually to optimise their supply chain. All this happens in the background and creates a seamless experience for the customer, essentially Uber removes the need for a human on the phone as a dispatcher with a more efficient automated system. This is why many taxi drivers are up in arms about Uber as it really takes the human element out of their jobs, dispatchers are no longer required and they are given a predetermined route to drive which essentially turns them into slaves to the computer and can impact on their income.

Data and automation are certainly not a replacement for humans in all situations though, it can help guide us  but it still requires a human to make sense of it and apply it. The reason proposed for this is that ultimately big data is human so it requires a human to combine, interpret and apply it in a meaningful way. Just as we would expect with any form of research, simply because there is lots of it it doesn’t mean that it is statistically accurate without analysis. Take Google Flu Trends as an example, launched in 2008, Google attempted to make accurate predictions about flu activity based on aggregating search queries. Initially the model seemed to predict with accuracy however the cracks started to show when the estimate for the 2011-12 flu season was more than 50 percent higher than the cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The danger that this highlights, is that it’s easy to fall into the trap of big data blindness where simply because there is lots of it we assume its statistically accurate and make poor assumptions without applying proper analysis of the results. For example, people making flu-related Google searches may not know much about how to tell if they actually have it or not, increasing false positive search queries. This is not to say big data isn’t useful, it just needs to have the same rigour applied to it as any other form of data.

With all this in mind, for us as agencies big data is great as it can help us do away with putting all our emphasis on the typical “Focus Group” as we can interpret other factors of behaviour. It can also help feed our understanding of our market and discovering peoples “secret self” – their unconscious motivations that drive their behaviour in situations which can be difficult to draw out in typical research as people tend to act differently when they are being watched. Much like Uber, we need to be creative with how we approach problems and data as data can help us serve customers better by optimising and automating their experience. Data can also help us understand our customers better then ever before and help us to create messaging that resonates with their unconscious motivations, helping to remove barriers to consumption. The machines still need us, for now at least!

Author: Alex Leece

City Life – A Digital Transformation?

I recently read an article on the FT by Simon Kupor entitled The App Of Life, which discussed the interesting effect that technology has on urban living. It’s no secret that technology has always affected how we live and the town planning that surrounds it. The industrial revolution led to the creation of densely populated working areas and the mass production of vehicles created greater sprawl, enabling the typical suburbian lifestyle.

When the internet came about and people were able to connect and share information remotely, there was talk of the demise of cities. Why would you want to live in densely populated areas and work in large offices when you can do so from the comfort of your own home in the peaceful surroundings of the countryside? I feel that whilst this sounds good in theory, in practice there is always value in proximity. In a business sense, the internet is no replacement for being around people and bouncing ideas off them in person. For more on the virtue of proximity, see my post The Value Of Proximity.  I don’t think that digital connectivity will see the demise of the city, quite the contrary, I agree with Simon Kupor in that I think it will enable them to be better places to live thereby helping them to grow.

This effect can be seen already, mobile technology and smart phones are a perfect example of this. I’m someone who (through no fault of their own) is severely navigationally impaired, paper bags pose a challenge. This problem has thankfully been completey resolved for me by being able to punch an address into my phone, then get GPS co-ordinates of where I am and where I need to go. This makes navigating the complex road network of any city a breeze, making it more pleasant and efficient to get around. Further to this, if I need to find any kind of service, all I need to do is look it up on my phone and it tells me all the options around me, allowing me to make the most of the cities retail and service offerings. Plugging this in to the social graph means I’m never alone as I can find out where my friends are at any given time.

The next step is people using technology and data to help run their cities. We’ve seen the social graph with Facebook, interest graph with Twitter what could happen if we had an entire city grid open to plug in to? With an open graph style system governments could assist us to manage water, transport, parking or power. Imagine being able to remotely check your water or power consumption from your phone and adjust accordingly. Even just being able to find out where parking spaces were available would be a huge step in efficiency! Interestingly the article points out that Dublin has opened data on everything from water use to transport in the hopes that developers will devise opportunities to use this to improve city design and living.  To quote the article, “We’re starting to see almost an “open-source design” of cities, says Ratti.”

Whilst the lure of the country side and an internet connection still remains, I think digital technology will enable city life to be more efficient and enjoyable then ever before. This will naturally lead to the continuation of their draw for people and their growth. If you need any proof of this just take a look at the ever increasing rate that we are building Skyscrapers (and their burgeoning height). We seem to be building up rather than out, I’m relieved my phone will tell me which floor I’m on.

Alex

Reference:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/36eaf488-b5b4-11e1-ab92-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1xwmYsZWZ

By Simon Kupor

Big Data & In Memory Computing

BT Tower - London - A Monument To The Broadcast Era

Big Data is a term coined to describe the data deluge we are currently experiencing. It’s no secret that we are living in a technology driven society that generates an ever increasing amount of data as we go about our daily lives. “Always on” is a term that is often heard and more often then not, when we are “on” we are creating data about ourselves, our likes and our dislikes, our network of friends both professional and social, and even our travel habits. At the same time, businesses must also retain more and more information to manage themselves more efficiently across the board. In tough economic times there is an ever increasing recognition that organisations must use every single resource at their disposal to get ahead. This results in information and data that once might have been given little attention is now seen as worth its weight in gold if any perceived value can be derived from it.

Looking at the sources of this data, to start with there is of course the sales, operational and customer data that the business collects. On top of this there’s social media data from the likes of Facebook and Twitter including information around friend groups, likes/dislikes and sentiment analysis. There’s web search data, with transactional information or online customer reviews. There’s also data generated by location-based services and data from sensors, moniters and GPS embedded in a growing array of products from vehicles to appliances. I believe if we as advertisors can offer solutions to our clients of how we can process and utilise the growing amount of data available to help inform creative business solutions we could offer real value. To quote a recent Financial Times article

“The challenges are two-fold: First, to recognize the value of big data in mining customer needs and desires, and second, to devise a data management strategy that integrates big data into the front end of the innovation pipeline.” 

So how do businesses harness all the data that is being created and use it to inform their strategy and decision making? The challenge here is being able to process large amounts of data at speeds that make it useful. It’s very difficult to really make use of data in business decisions on an ongoing basis when it takes weeks to gather and process. Large software powerhouses such as SAP & Oracle have been bringing new tools to market for businesses to help solve this problem. In memory computing software is designed so organisations can analyse vast quantities of data in near real time across many sources. Essentially in-memory computing takes advantage of a better understanding of how data is formed and housed and the ever decreasing price of memory (discussed in my Technology vs Advertising post). Instead of housing data on a hard drive, data is stored in a computers memory. Therefore, when it needs to be analysed it is available in near real time. This increased power and speed also means that the computers can handle more unstructured data, important when data can come from so many different sources. On the back of this there would need to be a process for managing and delivering the data in an efficient manner and most importantly, in a way that is easy to understand and glean insights from.

Whilst I think caution must be taken not to let our ability to measure granular details bog down the creative process, at the end of the day, the more you know about your customers and can integrate those insights into your business strategies the more likely they are to improve revenue, margins and market share. Who wouldn’t want that leg up over the competition?

Alex

Colmar Brunton & Millward Brown’s Digital Predictions For 2012

As we rapidly speed towards the end of the year and scurry to get the last bits of creative out the door before we head off on our Christmas breaks, I took some time today to consider the year ahead after reading Colmar Brunton & Millward Brown’s digital predictions for 2012. Whilst it’s impossible to be truly accurate with these predictions, it’s exciting to think about the trends that will potentially be shaping our projects in the year to come. With technology changing so rapidly, alot can happen in 12 months time! Here’s their list:

#1 Gamification Unlocked: Big Brands become even more playful

This concept has close ties with behavioural economics, applying gaming mechanics to non game situations. The trick is to bake them in and do it in such a way that it doesn’t feel like a game. For example, bonus reward points randomly offered on purchases.

#2 Just Tap It! Wide spread adoption of the mobile wallet

We’ve always got our phones with us, we will start to see its functionality enhanced enabling practicality. It could be used as a payment system, a means of I.D, drivers license or even keys to unlock our car.

#3 Virtual Togetherness: TV & Social Media will fuel an explosion in tools, technologies & platforms for interaction and research

People will be able to engage with shows in new and interesting ways. TV viewing habits are often influenced by our friends so the social graph could be leverage as a program guide. Could have an impact on how we view TV Ratings also.

#4 Online Video: Invades the living room

Google TV & Apple TV have already had a stab at this, but as TVs become internet enabled we will be able to access more and more content from the web with it.

#5 Mobile Marketing: Will become more social & local than ever before

Success in this space will combine relevance, location and timing of the content intertwined with social. Care must be taken about appearing intrusive here as people have very close relationships with their mobile phones and don’t take well to being pushed content they don’t want.

#6 Growth: The only App trend that really matters

Looking beyond Apples app store, we see Android market steadily growing. Apps could be pulled accross multiple devices from mobile to tablet to PC and TVs. In App advertising will grow and morph into richer content and video.

#7 Social CPG e-commerce: Tiptoeing between engagement and marketing leads us back to traditional marketing vehicles

Care must be taken not to turn the social space into just another selling opportunity but it may offer the chance to build awareness, trial, sample and coupon.

#8 The Social Graph will generate meaningful data for brand measurement

The social graph generates an unprecented amount of consumer data that can be used both for consumer insight and a real time barometer of consumer opinion.

#9 Regulators narrow their focus as consumers pay the real price for “free” access

With information sharing essentially being the cost of entry to networks, the financial implications of how information is managed and protected may come in to play.

#10 The arrival of Seamless Sharing

The share button will continue to spread throughout the online space, being able to share a peice of content is just naturally expected. Those who produce the most interesting content will gain the most earned media through this mechanism.

#11 China will see “One Stop Shop” convergence of micro-blogging, social networks & information portals

New forms of micro-blogging which integrate facets of social networks are taking off.

#12 Online Advertising: Real-time decision making takes centre stage

We want data and we want it right away. Successful strategies here will involve being able to adapt efficiently to real time information in combination with insight, analytics and creative execution. As a side note, Google Analytics just launched real time stats for your page.

Colmar Brunton & Millward Brown’s digital predictions for 2012 Report

Here’s to an exciting 2012!

Alex